The Numbers Don’t Lie, Even When Washington Does

Let me start with something most financial media won’t touch. There is a long-duration bond ETF, government bonds, that is down 63 percent over the past six years. Sixty-three percent. On bonds. The asset class that is supposed to be the safe, boring part of your portfolio.

How did we get here? The 30-year Treasury yield moved from 0.8 percent, which was artificially, dangerously low, all the way up to 5.3 percent. That kind of move destroys bond values. And it happened because the fundamentals of our national finances are broken.

Washington’s Spending Problem Is Your Problem

Here are the numbers for the first ten months of fiscal year 2026, which started in October 2025.

• The federal government collected $4.5 trillion in revenue from taxpayers
• The federal government spent $6.3 trillion
• That gap, $1.8 trillion in ten months, is being added directly to the national debt

I don’t care what narrative you’ve been sold about tariff revenue solving our problems or some golden age of fiscal discipline arriving in Washington. The books tell a completely different story. The math is the math.

Inflation Is a Tax. A Hidden One.

This is the part I need every reader to truly understand, because most people intellectually hear it but don’t feel it in their bones.

When Washington borrows and prints money at this scale, they devalue the currency. Every dollar you earn, every dollar sitting in your savings account, every dollar in your paycheck buys less. That is not an accident. That is the mechanism.

• Politicians spend beyond their means
• They print money to cover the gap
• Your purchasing power shrinks
• You are effectively taxed without a tax increase being voted on

Inflation is a politician’s best friend precisely because most voters don’t connect the two. They blame corporations, they blame markets, they blame capitalism. Meanwhile, the people they keep voting back into office are the ones operating the printing press.

What the “Bad News Is Good News” Market Tells Us

Here is something worth paying attention to right now. Markets are currently operating in a bad news is good news environment. Weak economic data, soft retail sales, soft jobs numbers, these are being cheered because investors assume bad data forces the Fed to cut rates.

The Fed’s dual mandate, managing both inflation and employment, creates this perverse dynamic. Kevin Warsh, who has been discussed as a potential Fed leadership figure, has signaled he would pay closer attention to inflation over employment. That shift matters. If inflation remains stubborn, the Fed’s hands are more tied than the market is currently pricing in.

For your portfolio, this means:

• Long-duration bonds remain a significant risk if rates stay elevated
• The assumption that rate cuts are inevitable and imminent may be wrong
• Real assets and inflation-resistant holdings deserve serious attention in this environment

The Honest Truth About Who Is Responsible

I’ll be direct here. The blame for this situation doesn’t belong entirely to one party or one administration. We collectively keep sending people to Washington who borrow and spend without consequence. We keep looking to government to solve problems that government created.

The course correction starts closer to home, with our own financial decisions, our own communities, and our own families. Understanding that inflation is a hidden tax is the first step. Making your portfolio resilient against it is the second.